The world is approaching a profound structural transformation across power, sovereignty, and international competition, driven by rapid advances in AI, data analytics, smart manufacturing, biotechnology, and cyberspace, a new TRENDS Research & Advisory insight has found. The English-language insight presents an in-depth analytical examination of the expanding role of advanced technology in reconfiguring the global geopolitical order beyond 2026.
The insight is informed by the outcomes of an international conference organized by TRENDS through its Canada office in Montreal in May 2025, held as part of the AFCAS Congress. The conference brought together a distinguished group of international experts and researchers, complemented by a comprehensive analytical review of the latest scientific and academic literature in this field.
According to the insight, the post-2026 period does not mark a gradual change in international relations, but rather a structural turning point in the evolution of the global system. This shift reflects the cumulative impact of accelerating technological change, as technology has moved beyond a supporting role to become a governing framework that shapes economic production, political authority, security practices, and social relations, with direct consequences for global power dynamics.
The insight further notes that geopolitical power is rapidly transitioning away from traditional material foundations, such as geography, natural resources, and military capabilities, toward new forms of cognitive and algorithmic power. In this context, the ability to collect, process, and operationalize data through AI systems has become a decisive measure of strategic influence and international standing.
It also emphasizes that technology has emerged as a new layer of sovereignty infrastructure, directly affecting states’ ability to perform core functions, including security, public administration, and economic governance. As a result, reliance on external digital platforms and computing infrastructures increasingly constitutes a source of strategic vulnerability, even where formal legal sovereignty remains intact.
The insight introduces the concept of technogeopolitics as a new analytical framework for understanding contemporary global transformations. It argues that international competition is no longer defined solely by control over territory or natural resources, but increasingly by dominance over data, digital infrastructure, technical standards, and integrated innovation ecosystems.
It underscores that AI now constitutes the core cognitive infrastructure of the emerging international system. As a general-purpose technology, AI permeates all strategic sectors, including defense and intelligence, the economy, healthcare, education, and diplomacy. The insight warns that the high concentration of advanced technological capabilities within a limited number of states and major corporations is widening geopolitical inequalities and generating new forms of technological dependency.
The analysis also examines rapid shifts in global supply chains and smart manufacturing, emphasizing that semiconductors have become a critical geopolitical resource directly linked to national security and economic resilience. This has intensified international competition over control of semiconductor production and value chains. In parallel, the insight highlights the growing convergence between technological security and energy security, driven by the expansion of energy-intensive AI applications.
In the life sciences domain, the insight notes that biotechnology and the increasingly described convergence of digital and biological systems have emerged as a new arena of geopolitical competition. These developments raise ethical, security, and regulatory challenges that exceed the capacity of individual states and call for more integrated international governance frameworks.
The insight further emphasizes that outer space and cyberspace have become central theaters of geopolitical contestation. This shift reflects growing dependence on satellites for communications, navigation, and security, alongside the escalation of cyberattacks and information warfare targeting critical infrastructure and societal cohesion.
The insight concludes that the configuration of the post-2026 international order will be shaped by states’ ability to adopt coherent, sovereign technological strategies. These strategies must be grounded in domestic innovation, institutional capacity-building, and a careful balance between security imperatives and openness. The analysis points to divergent global models in this regard, including the market-driven approach led by the United States, China’s state-centered model, and the European Union’s values-based regulatory framework.
The insight warns that the absence of a coordinated international vision risks deepening fragmentation and instability in the global system. Conversely, embedding technology within sound political and ethical frameworks could provide the foundation for a more balanced, resilient, and sustainable international order in the decades ahead.
