The arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro by Washington, through a high-profile military operation carried out by the U.S. Army’s Delta Force, has raised many questions about Venezuela’s future in the coming period. Perhaps the most prominent issue attracting the attention of observers is the question: Will elections be held? And if so, what outcomes can be expected?

Drivers for Holding Elections:

• The constitutional framework that guarantees the legitimacy of holding elections within 30 days.
• The presence of several figures, both from Maduro’s camp and the opposition, who are prepared to assume power.
  • Maduro’s Camp:
    • Delcy Rodríguez (Maduro’s Vice President).
    • Jorge Rodríguez (brother of the Vice President and President of the National Assembly).
    • Diosdado Cabello (Minister of Interior, Justice, and Peace).
    • Vladimir Padrino López (Minister of Defense).
    • Iván Hernández Dala (Head of Military Counterintelligence).
  • The Opposition Camp:
    • Edmundo González (Leader of the opposition).
    • María Corina Machado (winner of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, a Trump supporter, and regarded as the de facto leader of the opposition).

Obstacles to Elections:

• Indications that Washington may not favor holding Venezuelan elections, particularly President Trump’s statement that Caracas is not ready to hold elections at this time, in addition to a CIA assessment concluding that senior Maduro loyalists are the most suitable to lead the country and maintain stability. This assessment implies that holding elections -or not- would not change much.
• The absence of a stable political environment at present, along with doubts about the integrity of elections under current conditions.
• Concerns over voter turnout amid a domestic situation prone to escalation.
• Opposition from some international actors to the U.S. move, such as Russia and China.

In light of the current situation, holding elections will depend on the will of the country’s political, military, and security components, an unlikely scenario in the foreseeable future given the escalating domestic rhetoric in Venezuela. This suggests that holding elections could undermine the image of Maduro’s camp itself, which would naturally affect its future if elections were conducted fairly and under neutral international supervision.