Reports

German Insights (02)

TRENDS Virtual Office in Germany

Europe in a World Shaped by War

At a pivotal moment in the evolution of the international system, the outbreak of war on 28 February 2026 between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other has marked a profound strategic rupture. What began as a regional escalation has rapidly expanded into a defining global turning point, reshaping the architecture of power, alliances, and economic interdependence.

The assumptions that underpinned the post-Cold War order are increasingly under strain. Open globalization, once celebrated as the dominant framework of international relations, is no longer the central organizing principle of global affairs. In its place, a more fragmented and contested order is emerging—one driven by hard geopolitics, military deterrence, and the securitization of energy and trade routes. Strategic chokepoints, particularly in the Gulf and surrounding maritime corridors, have regained critical importance in shaping both policy and markets.

For Europe, and particularly for Germany as its economic and political anchor, the implications are profound. The continent now faces a multidimensional strategic test: how to preserve its transatlantic alliance with the United States while safeguarding its own economic stability, energy security, and diplomatic autonomy. The war has exposed Europe’s vulnerabilities—its dependence on external energy supplies, its limited military leverage, and its exposure to disruptions in global supply chains.

At the same time, the crisis is accelerating internal European debates over strategic sovereignty, defense integration, and the future of its global role. Policymakers are increasingly forced to reconcile normative commitments to diplomacy and international law with the realities of a more coercive and unstable international environment. In this issue, we examine these transformations from the heart of the unfolding crisis. We assess how the war is not only reshaping the Middle East but also redefining Europe’s place in a rapidly hardening global order—one in which globalization is giving way to confrontation, and economic interdependence is increasingly filtered through the logic of security and power.