TRENDS Research and Advisory has released a study entitled “Prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian war in its third year.” The study analyzes the course of the war since it broke out in February 2022, focusing on its most important developments, and presents possible scenarios for the future of the conflict in 2024.

The study, conducted by TRENDS principal researcher Dr. Ayman Al-Desouki and Aisha Ibrahim Al Hosani, research assistant, foresees the prospects of the Russian-Ukrainian war in its third year, by analyzing its main stages of development since its outbreak in 2022, and explores the current military situation.

The study includes three main sections; the first section gives background on the evolution of the course of the war since Russian forces invaded the Ukrainian border, in what was called a “special military operation” on February 24, 2022. The next section to takes an in-depth look at the current military situation. In the third section, scenarios for the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2024 are analyzed, and one of them is preferred.

The study analyzes of the phases of the war, from the large-scale Russian offensive in February 2022, to the current stalemate at the battle lines, and an assessment of the current military situation, including the balance of power between the two sides, their losses, and their military strategies.

The study presented possible scenarios for the future of the conflict in 2024, with emphasis on the scenario of the war of attrition, escalation of the war, and potential political settlement. Finally. it touched on possible options of how to deal with the war in 2024, and foresees the importance of working towards a political settlement of the conflict that preserves the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.