The global transition toward green energy production and use is underway to mitigate climate change. Often referred to as the second energy transition since the industrial revolution, the production and consumption of hydrogen energy is frequently highlighted as one of the most promising approaches to achieve such an energy transition.[1] On one hand, hydrogen as an energy carrier is able to decarbonize energy systems using the current fossil energy infrastructure, and on the other, hydrogen can be easily combined with renewable energy systems to form an energy carrier that is sustainable. Hydrogen as a commodity is, however, not new, and its current large-scale production not only contributes to greenhouse gas emissions but also is unsustainable.

Green hydrogen production using renewable energy-powered electrolysis is deemed a predominant approach to broadly decarbonize both the energy and industrial system and is seen as a viable and promising commodity. With hydrogen being an internationally traded energy commodity, there exists the potential to create a green hydrogen ecosystem in which green hydrogen is produced, and traded, and the uptakes facilitated. Namibia has been identified as a country with high green hydrogen production potential and hence, a nascent green hydrogen ecosystem.[2] The concept of Localized Innovation and Adoption Strategies (LIAS) has been proposed to act as an agenda to analyze and support the development of nascent technologies and industries in developing countries.[3] This research aims to address the glaring knowledge gap within the literature regarding the facilitation of green hydrogen ecosystems in developing countries by presenting a LIAS framework and using it to conduct a comparative analysis of the nascent green hydrogen ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Namibia.

From a policy perspective, the enabling trends, systemic barriers, national interest concerns, and action items for each concern to create a local green hydrogen economy in Sub-Saharan Africa and Namibia were outlined and extensively discussed. The research findings will contribute to the field of hydrogen academia and offer practical recommendations for national policies that will support the local hydrogen economy’s future growth.

Despite a worldwide hydrogen production market dominated by steam methane reforming (SMR), interest in alternative resources and to comply with increasingly stringent environmental regulations is rising, with Green Hydrogen emerging as one such alternative. Diversification of Europe’s energy imports is spurring greater interest in countries with large renewable resources, such as those in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Sub-Saharan African region is endowed with an abundance of renewable resources that are currently underutilized, most notably solar and wind. Using these resources, green hydrogen can be produced from water on a large scale. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) estimates that Southern Africa could be the world’s leading exporter of green hydrogen by 2050 if investment and participation occur at all levels of government and industry.[4] Namibia is demonstrating its wealth of natural resources in terms of both green hydrogen production and export. As recently displayed by outgoing Namibian President Hage Geingob, regional cooperation could also benefit Sub-Saharan African countries that are not as resource-rich, such as Botswana, Mauritius, and Zambia.[5]

The argument is based on the belief that Green Hydrogen technologies will drive a number of social, economic, and regional changes across the globe. However, the nature of these changes varies greatly depending on the context, creating both opportunities and challenges for policy intervention, advocacy and investment. Broadening the perspective of such agendas is necessary, especially for new entrants into emerging markets of green hydrogen technology producers. Consequently, understanding better the wide variety of value propositions and policy responses is paramount for managing futures that can escape historic cycles of inequality.

2. Green Hydrogen Technology Overview

Hydrogen is considered one of the most abundant fuels in the universe. It is primarily found in water and hydrocarbons on Earth. Hydrogen can be extracted from water using various methods, including electrolysis, photo-catalytic, and thermochemical processes. Other potential hydrogen sources include biomass and fossil fuels, although these lead to carbon dioxide emissions. Since it produces only water vapor when burned, hydrogen is a clean fuel. The technology for hydrogen trends toward fuel cells or hydrogen-powered combustion engines. Increasing the use of hydrogen requires an irreversible transition from fossil fuel-based hydrogen production to renewable-based hydrogen production.

In the short term, this transition requires analyzing renewable-based hydrogen production pathways, focusing on electrolysis. In the medium term, such renewable energy sources must be local, and in the long term, solar trough and central receiver technologies must be used.[6] Decarbonizing hydrogen by using inexpensive renewable energy sources will permit the development of new applications in chemical processes and energy storage in the form of synthetic fuels. It will also allow the usage of fuel cells as cleaner alternatives to internal combustion engines. Indeed, hydrogen can decarbonize activities like steel production, reduce process gases in chemical and fertilizer production, chemical storage and transportation of renewable energy. Climate change and the associated rise in fossil fuel prices accentuate the prospect that national energy independence becomes economically viable.

Hydrogen may be produced from a variety of sources other than fossil fuels. Currently, electrolyzers are produced from platinum-group metals. Biocatalysts are being developed that can replace the expensive precious metals used in conventional electrolysis, although much research is needed to achieve the productivity necessary for commercial application.[7] Using green hydrogen, water is split into oxygen and hydrogen. The renewable energy used in the process can come from hydropower, solar power, ocean waves, and wind. The hydrogen enriches biofuels by increasing the hydrogen/carbon ratio (H/C), and hydrogen gas is then produced. Green hydrogen is burned to provide energy for hydrogen vehicles, producing water and no carbon dioxide. Using green hydrogen may lead to no net addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.[8]

The early 2000s saw an increase in interest in hydrogen as an energy carrier, primarily due to its potential to decarbonize energy systems. By the end of the decade, global hydrogen production and commercialization activity were mainly confined to a niche market consisting of oil refining and nitrification (for fertilizer production).[9] New initiatives subsequently arose to assess hydrogen adoption levels in energy systems considering climate change, energy security, and oil supply challenges. These efforts revealed a global hydrogen production and commercialization tsunami was looming on the horizon, mainly due to the emergence of countries with abundant renewable resources. This signaled the arrival of a hydrogen economy, where hydrogen substitutes fossil-based fuels in energy systems. Expectations were that this burgeoning activity would start in remote locations of booming renewable developing countries. An emerging body of regional hydrogen production, transportation, and use chains ensued discussions of so-called hydrogen clusters.[10] These are defined as local or regional concentrations of hydrogen production and end use, usually linked by hydrogen transport systems.[11]

In July 2020, Namibia asked the World Bank Group to assist in preparing a national-level assessment of local hydrogen production, transportation, storage, and use opportunities. In late 2020, the Bank published its hydrogen cluster report’s terms of reference, for which there was initial financial support from Norway.[12] In 2021, it prepared a similar assessment for countries in western Africa. In 2022, a Fact Sheet reflecting the earliest findings across Africa and advancing one-on-one country-level discussions was produced.[13] In 2023, an updated Fact Sheet was prepared, advancing the discussion of Africa’s readiness to embark on hydrogen development with the United States and European markets.[14]

3. Regional Green Hydrogen Ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) holds immense potential to produce low-cost renewable hydrogen (green H2) from major resources, including solar PV and wind energy. The region’s young population and desire for industrialization and economic development are expected to drive local demand growth within SSA. Currently, however, political, regulatory, and market-related uncertainty is dampening strong stakeholders’ engagement and investment development. With substantial public and private investment in renewable hydrogen production, conversion technologies, infrastructure systems, and national/local hydrogen policies, clearly defined and actionable green hydrogen strategies could create a regional SSA renewable hydrogen ecosystem and vibrant local markets. Growing demand sectors outside of SSA (e.g., maritime, steel, ammonia, etc.) could encourage export-focused project development.[15]

While the political landscape of hydrogen development initiatives is still evolving, its clear emergence following the oil & gas industry’s early involvement is an encouraging sign of the wide acceptance of hydrogen as a fundamental energy carrier for decarbonization. Developing a regional SSA perspective is essential as the green hydrogen production targets of the various nations currently under consideration greatly exceed local demand. Furthermore, there is a vast array of socioeconomic, rent-seeking, and financial need inequalities across the region. The building of affordable energy and chemical feedstock supply chains would greatly benefit regions currently overexposed to energy poverty. In addition to complementary resource endowments and being the lowest-cost production region, SSA is home to many of the burgeoning Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) investments within Africa.[16]

Currently, Namibia has a fully government-supported competitive green hydrogen agenda, with foreign direct investment targeting high-capacity green hydrogen production projects.[17] South Africa is designating the green hydrogen development focus area, announcing foreign policy targeting green hydrogen production and export agreements, and aiming to establish a robust green hydrogen supply chain partnership in Europe and Asia.[18] Seychelles and Cabo Verde aim to produce green hydrogen and derivatives for export and domestic use.[19] However, most regions do not have a detailed strategy or action plan, and many available studies do not address stakeholder engagement. Current initiatives have mostly been donor-supported studies.

3.1.Current Landscape and Initiatives

Sub-Saharan Africa has been identified as a region with key advantages to help in the transition to green hydrogen and its derivatives from renewable energy sources, as well as expand on the export opportunities as part of the global shift toward green energy. This section will contextualize and illustrate the current advancements in attempts to build regional green hydrogen ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly focusing on West Africa, Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. There will be recommendations on how local actors could strategically formulate initiatives to foster innovation and adoption.

Currently, there are numerous initiatives in place around the region trying to harness these advantages and explore viable paths forward. Examples include projects and policies within the above-mentioned regions and their surroundings, larger regions.

Botswana has opened up 12 blocks for green hydrogen development, seeking to harness renewable energy resources to mine, purify, and store hydrogen. The government and the University of Botswana are facing a research and development stage of exploring technology development and a national hydrogen strategy.[20] Namibia is formulating a green hydrogen strategy (due mid-2022) and has seen engagements with the Asian Development Bank and Gol, both proposing shared infrastructure to harness their resources and establish export opportunities.[21] There are numerous feasibility studies underway by international consortia in the Namibian coastal zone, exploring the prospects of generation and export on the scale of several million tons per year. Such foresight in exploring export opportunities can present a robust business case to entice interested developing countries to invest in capacity in Namibia as a green hydrogen export region.

West Africa benefited from a Green Hydrogen Policy and Strategic Framework developed in 2023. This initiative was developed by the ECOWAS Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (ECREEE) in partnership with the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). The framework adopted by the ECOWAS Council of Ministers aims to promote green hydrogen development across the region as well as the strategic goals for the short term (2023-2030) and long term (2031-2050) to guide decision-making. ECREEE and partners are now focused on translating this policy into concrete actions through regional strategies and action plans engaging multiple stakeholders across ECOWAS member states to ensure effective implementation.[22]

3.2. Challenges and Opportunities

The green hydrogen market requires strategic planning at multiple levels to avoid seven significant systemic challenges that could impede its development, expansion, and scaling in certain locations while providing others with an economic advantage. This paper undertakes a thorough analysis of the seven core challenges and potential opportunities for the development of local green hydrogen ecosystems in SSA. These include the absence of a common global framework defining green hydrogen, a misalignment between current emissions regulations and efforts to decarbonize, a focus on energy retention rather than energy export, a lack of consumer demand, insufficient attention to the production sector’s capabilities, the need to rethink infrastructure requirements, and a missed opportunity regarding localized production and use.

Attracting and keeping investments in renewable energy is crucial for developing countries, especially low-income economies that depend on imported fuels. Current and rising fossil fuel prices, coupled with ambitious decarbonization targets and pledges of net zero emissions by the middle of this century, have led to a green rush response to potential renewable energy investments, particularly in wind and solar energy. Local green hydrogen ecosystems can be part of developing domestic energy strategies and allow countries to keep energy revenues and investments within national borders.

By pursuing green hydrogen strategies, developing countries can also access financial support from the Global North, including international climate finance, investment guarantees, and research funding. Other opportunities include the potential for technological and scientific cooperation agreements, as well as the required regulatory and commercial changes to close renewable energy and technology gaps. There is also the potential for building industrial clusters fostering research, development, and manufacturing of green hydrogen technologies, and employment creation facilitated by economic transformation. Finally, large volumes of renewable energy are likely to be needed globally, which SSA and Namibia may be well poised to provide if green hydrogen strategies are properly implemented.

However, current international and national regulations are not conducive to spurring local green hydrogen ecosystems. In the absence of funding and technology-transfer mechanisms, and without proper regulations and circular economies, global technology and financial gaps may widen. Nations without domestic renewable energy capacity are unlikely to have the opportunity for industrial development and technology/product sovereignty. The rapid, large-scale deployment of renewable energy could adversely affect ecosystems and communities. There is also the risk of policies adding compliance complexity and costs or taking green hydrogen considerations away from well-understood sustainable development pathways such as decentralized energy or carbon market mechanisms.

4. Namibia’s Green Hydrogen Initiatives

Namibia’s commitment to green hydrogen is highlighted by its National Climate Change Policy, Strategic Environmental Management Plan, and commitment to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.[23] These policies could attract more than USD 9 billion in investments and create 10,000 jobs. The government has signed several MoUs with various parties, including the EU, Germany, Japan, and South Korea, and is cooperating with the African Union and regional bodies like SADC to accelerate the development of the African hydrogen economy.[24]

Namibia greatly benefits from its excellent solar and wind resources, as well as its proximity to large neighboring markets, especially South Africa. The green hydrogen strategy was formally adopted by Cabinet approval in November 2020. The strategy aims to produce green hydrogen and its derivatives for both domestic use and export to international markets. In addition to targets for establishing a framework for the development of green hydrogen projects, an inter-ministerial technical working group was established to ensure the alignment of relevant policies.[25]

Namibia aims to have brownfield projects producing and exporting hydrogen or ammonia based on renewable energy generation and existing electrolysis and other related technologies by 2025. With 4 to 6 brownfield projects and investments of up to 7 billion US dollars, green hydrogen produced is set to be 200 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) or more, equivalent to about 4 GW to 8 GW of installed renewable generation capacity.[26] The financing of 5% to 10% and commissioning of projects is planned for 2026/27. By 2030, Namibia’s roadmap targets up to 0.5 million tons of green hydrogen and similar amine markets, involving about 8 GW of installed capacity.[27]

4.1. Policy Framework and Government Support

Namibia’s Vision 2030, which acknowledges the country’s significant renewable energy capacity and the need to diversify the economy and mitigate climate risks, prioritizes renewable energy.[28] The existent National Renewable Energy Policy establishes uniform regulations for renewable energy technologies. Namibia’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) focus on multi-sectoral climate adaptation and mitigation actions. The country is committed to the 2016 Kigali Amendment to phase down HFCs, ratified the Paris Agreement, and developed an NDC to ensure a sustainable economy, clean energy transition, and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.[29] Namibia aims to support regional initiatives to be a leader in green hydrogen production so as to eventually reduce dependence on coal, oil, and natural gas, contributing directly to regional energy security.

The National Policy on Energy is based on the principles of sustainable development, ensuring the future availability of energy resources, increasing the proportion of renewable energy in the energy mix to support economic growth, and liberalizing the energy sector to stimulate private investment and boost access to energy, thereby unlocking economic development and industrialization opportunities.[30] The Sustainable National Development Strategy 2010-2030 is in operation, and Namibia’s Vision 2030 combines rapid economic development. Green hydrogen production should create socio-economic development benefits. Namibia is taking global leadership in green hydrogen production through the formation of the Namibia Green Hydrogen Council and efforts to develop a hub for green hydrogen innovation on an international and regional scale.[31] Climate financing is needed to assist with creating local capacity-building development initiatives in Namibia and Sub-Saharan Africa.

5. Comparative Analysis of Innovation and Adoption Strategies

The investigation of the development of regional green hydrogen ecosystems and related localized innovation and adoption strategies pits two Sub-Saharan African regions against each other. Namibia’s autonomous initiatives taken against the backdrop of policy takeaway hurdles form the case for localized innovation strategies, while South Africa’s key government policymaking, coordinated large-scale projects and involved support networks provide the basis for the analysis of adoption strategies. The analysis focuses on a warm comparative approach, spotting soft variables and common experiences across the two regions as influencing innovation and adoption speeds, obstacles or enablers, and isolates hard variables such as resource endowments and geographic features.

Crucial drivers of the innovation and adoption processes toward regional green hydrogen ecosystems emerged from the comparative analysis, based on previously defined sub-groups of drivers that emanated either from the local context of the regions analyzed or concerned the global competitiveness of regional innovation systems. The different categories of drivers of both the innovation and adoption processes were then brought back together and aggregated into common top-level drivers for innovation and adoption activity, presented as overarching key factors for success.

A comparative analysis of these factors between the two regions explored possible alternative paths through which the innovation or adoption process could be configured, highlighting localized variance in the approach to the development of green hydrogen economies. A second round of analysis focused on the wider applicability of drivers and factors based on the lessons presented and potential transfer to regions outside of the boundaries of Sub-Saharan Africa, providing key points for consideration in the establishment of similar ecosystems in other regional contexts and addressing environmental factors such as tech readiness, economic development, labor, policy, and infrastructure.

5.1. Key Factors for Success

A careful examination of Namibia’s and Sub-Saharan Africa’s policy frameworks, stakeholder engagements, research landscapes, and green hydrogen development strategies facilitated the identification of applicable criteria for evaluating regions’ prospects for success in becoming significant suppliers within the global green hydrogen economy. These key success factors serve as the basis for comparing the two regions and providing recommendations for improving their chances of success. Two core key success factors were identified: 1. Strategic interest of a critical state actor and 2. Facility-produced green hydrogen can be exported to global markets via ocean shipping routes. Three supporting key factors for success were identified: 1. Potential to develop a demonstrator project involving electrolysis, ammonia synthesis, and ocean shipping to global markets; 2. High availability of potentially developable land for green hydrogen production and related infrastructure; and 3. Co-location of land and resources with underutilized existing infrastructure relevant to green hydrogen.

Namibia achieves a positive evaluation outcome for both core success factors and one supporting factor. The outer desert region of Namibia is close to ocean shipping routes, and with land area being four times that of the UK, it easily meets the criterion of potentially developable land for large-scale production. Furthermore, with a focus on green hydrogen, Namibian actors have become involved in 22 green hydrogen or ammonia projects across offshore wind, solar and offshore wind. Additionally, Namibia is currently negotiating an agreement with Germany for a €9 billion investment to develop a green ammonia production facility with up to 300 MW of electrolysis capacity.[32] Despite these possible advantages, Namibia does not yet have a strategic actor in the form of a net exporter state with either maritime ambitions or aspirations for regional leadership in green hydrogen. Sub-Saharan Africa does not score positively on either of the core success factors. Currently, there is no coastal region in a SSA country with both the capability and ambition to develop large green hydrogen production facilities. There is a fear that this region and its people will be left behind in this energy transition as investment and resulting jobs flow to large coastal brown hydrogen producers in Gulf states or Asia.

By developing a green hydrogen and ammonia port complex in Walvis Bay or Lüderitz, Namibia would position itself as a potential emerging green hydrogen and ammonia maritime hub in the South Atlantic. This would spark and facilitate a maritime scramble for the development of land-based production facilities by large investor states along the Namibian coast that would see the revolution brought about by green hydrogen technology emerge overnight in this corner of the globe.

6. Conclusion and Future Directions

This exploratory research investigated nascent regional green hydrogen innovation ecosystems in Sub-Saharan Africa, using Namibia and its local and regional contexts as a focal point for in-depth case studies. The study focused on localized approaches in Namibia and similar contexts, comparing the role of actors, regional developmental agendas, and the nuances of localization strategies.

Key findings show that regional green hydrogen ecosystems are emerging, with experimentation in strategies and pathways for development. The uneven distribution of agency is evident, with nations like Namibia taking the lead due to resource endowments, while regional dynamics, such as energy security and cross-border cooperation, influence outcomes. These findings contribute to discussions on post-coloniality, autonomy, and Africa’s role in addressing climate challenges.

The findings underscore the importance of a whole-supply-chain perspective in green hydrogen strategies, avoiding unidirectional approaches that could lead to inequities. A nuanced approach is needed to consider the location of production and usage, ensuring fair development. International support should align with local contexts to prevent escalating already-existing disparities.

Additionally, a forward-looking approach is necessary, involving full stakeholder participation to ensure local ownership of green hydrogen agendas. Anticipating potential political challenges is crucial to fostering equitable and just green hydrogen practices and aligning local and international frameworks for sustainable development..

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[14] “New Study Confirms €1 Trillion Africa’s Extraordinary Green Hydrogen Potential,” European Investment Bank, accessed October 7, 2024, https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2022-574-new-study-confirms-eur-1-trillion-africa-s-extraordinary-green-hydrogen-potential.

[15] IRENA, “Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation: The Hydrogen Factor,” n.d.

[16] Neesha Salian, “Unlocking the Vast Potential of GCC Investment in Africa,” August 12, 2024, https://gulfbusiness.com/exploring-gcc-investment-in-africa/.

[17] HYPHEN, “Hyphen-Hydrogen-Energy-FIA-Infographic-04,” 2022, https://hyphenafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Hyphen-Hydrogen-Energy-FIA-Infographic-04.pdf.

[18]  Departmenmt of Science & Inovation-Republic of SA, “South Africa Hydrogen Valley Final Report,” 2021.

[19] “Seychelles Holds Successful Talks with Masdar UAE in Relation to Seychelles' Energy Generation Plan,” accessed October 9, 2024, https://statehouse.gov.sc/news/5774/seychelles-holds-successful-talks-with-masdar-uae-in-relation-to-seychelles-energy-generation-plan; “Flexens to Probe Feasibility for Green H2 Production on Cape Verde,” Renewablesnow.com, accessed October 8, 2024, https://renewablesnow.com/news/flexens-to-probe-feasibility-for-green-h2-production-on-cape-verde-824682/.

[20] Hawilti Desk, “Tlou Energy to Start Producing Green Hydrogen in Botswana from 2022,” Hawilti (blog), November 11, 2021, https://hawilti.com/energy/hydrogen/tlou-energy-to-start-producing-green-hydrogen-in-botswana-from-2022/; Colin Hay, “Botala Energy and Pure Hydrogen Achieve Major Milestone at Botswana Gas Project,” Small Caps, September 5, 2023, https://smallcaps.com.au/botala-energy-pure-hydrogen-achieve-major-milestone-botswana-gas-project/.

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[27] Namibia and Namibia, eds., Namibia Vision 2030: Policy Framework for Long-Term National Development (Windhoek: Office of the President, 2004); “Namibia Vision 2030 – Policy Framework for Long-Term National Development,” UNEP Law and Environment Assistance Platform, accessed October 8, 2024, https://leap.unep.org/en/countries/na/national-legislation/namibia-vision-2030-policy-framework-long-term-national.

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[29] Republic of Namibia, “Namibia’s NDC UPDATE,” 2021.

[30] “Namibia Vision 2030 – Policy Framework for Long-Term National Development,” UNEP Law and Environment Assistance Platform.

[31] Hertta-Maria Amutenya, “Namibia Eyes Global Leadership in Green Hydrogen Production,” Windhoek Observer, September 30, 2024, https://www.observer24.com.na/namibia-eyes-global-leadership-in-green-hydrogen-production/.

[32] “Namibia Launches 10 Billion Dollar-Hydrogen Project with German Participation,” Clean Energy Wire, May 25, 2023, https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/namibia-launches-10-billion-dollar-hydrogen-project-german-participation.