As part of its engagement at the Paris International Book Fair, TRENDS Research and Advisory debuted the French iteration of the «Muslim Brotherhood Global Influence Index», the world’s first of its kind which is meant to gauge the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood across different levels and geographic regions.

TV presenter Saoud Alkaabi moderated the symposium, elucidating that the index gauges the Brotherhood’s influence across five primary indicators: the influence of the international organization, political sway, economic impact, media reach, and societal imprint.

A sharp decline in the power and influence of the Brotherhood

The Muslim Brotherhood has experienced a significant downturn in its power and influence, as revealed by the index developed in collaboration with the University of Montreal in Canada and the University Platform for the Study of Islam (Pluriel). The findings indicate a marked decrease in the group’s overall strength, plummeting from 64% (strong) to 48% (medium) between 2021 and 2023. This decline can be attributed to various factors, including weakened media influence and capacity of mobilization, internal discord leading to fragmentation within the group, and shifting geopolitical dynamics such as the reconciliation between the Arab Quartet countries and Qatar and Turkey, which have undermined the Brotherhood’s interests. Additionally, increased security measures, legal prosecutions, exposure of hidden aspects through media productions, and heightened public awareness of the group’s agendas have contributed to its diminishing influence. Furthermore, the demise of key historical leaders and failures to mobilize unrest in various Arab countries have compounded the group’s challenges.

He pointed out that previous setbacks resulted in a decline in the Group’s overall comprehensive strength from 64% in 2021 to 49.3% in 2022, and further to 48% in 2023. The index results indicated a decrease in the Group’s strength across all major indicators: political power dropped from 67.7% to 47.5%, economic influence decreased from 66.6% to 60.4%, media presence dwindled from 89.2% to 46.6%, and societal impact declined from 77.5% to 61.8%.

Shifts in Power and Influence Dynamics

Under the supervision of Dr. Wael Saleh, an expert in political Islam at TRENDS, alongside Dr. Patrice Brodeur, an associate professor at the University of Montreal, and Hamad Al Hosani, a researcher in Political Islam at TRENDS, the index unveiled alterations in the distribution of power across geographic regions. Notably, Asia emerged as the foremost contributor to the Muslim Brotherhood’s global influence in 2023, relegating North and South America to second place. Additionally, the Brotherhood’s influence witnessed an uptick in Africa but experienced a decline in both the Arab world and Europe.

The «Muslim Brotherhood Global Influence Index» (2022-2023) indicates a trajectory towards decline and eventual disappearance. This trend can be attributed to various factors, including internal vulnerabilities within the group, shifts in regional and international dynamics, and evolving perceptions of Arab public opinion towards it.

Dr. Mohammad Al-Ali, CEO of TRENDS, said: “The index serves as a vital tool for understanding the evolving landscape surrounding the Muslim Brotherhood on a global scale, offering objective insights into the Group’s influence across various domains”. He emphasized that the release of the French version of the ” Muslim Brotherhood Global Influence Index reflects TRENDS’ dedication to raising international awareness about the dangers posed by the Brotherhood and promoting collaborative efforts to combat its extremist ideologies.

He remarked that TRENDS has accorded special importance to its Political Islam Studies Program, recognizing the threat posed by this movement and its corrosive ideology. Consequently, the Center has emerged as a prominent global reference in this domain. Notably, TRENDS has produced a dedicated encyclopedia on the Muslim Brotherhood comprising 35 published volumes to date, with 11 of these translated into 15 international languages. Additionally, TRENDS continuously releases studies addressing various aspects of this subject around the clock.

Dr. Wael Saleh elaborated that the index introduces a pioneering model, the first of its kind, for assessing the power and influence of religious groups. This model combines both quantitative and qualitative methodologies, utilizing main and sub-indicators to gauge various facets of the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence across 50 countries spanning all five continents.

Additionally, the index addresses the escalating demand for timely and insightful indicators regarding the present and future trajectories of the Muslim Brotherhood’s global influence. Such insights are crucial for policymakers to formulate swift and effective responses. The index aims to offer impartial and objective evaluations concerning the Brotherhood’s capabilities and its potential future endeavors.

Professor Patrice Brodeur highlighted that the index is part of the ongoing endeavors by researchers at TRENDS to establish principles for an Arab cognitive framework in examining the phenomenon of political Islam. Additionally, it aims to identify new areas of research, with a particular focus on adopting applied methodologies like this index. Such approaches are instrumental in comprehensively understanding the phenomenon of Brotherhood Islamism, monitoring its dynamics, and tracking its transformations across various dimensions.

Professor Michel Younis, General Coordinator of the University Platform for the Study of Islam, highlighted the significance of the index, noting that it offers a comprehensive roadmap of the Brotherhood’s global influence using rigorous scientific methods and sober approaches.

The index’s geographic analysis offers valuable insights into the Group’s strengths and weaknesses across societal, economic, political, and media domains, filling a notable gap in French library resources

Hamad Al Hosani highlighted that the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence peaked during the “Arab Spring,” emphasizing that the index provides valuable insights into how the Group has since experienced a decline in influence and power. The index offers a scientific and measurable assessment of this decline across all levels and geographical regions under scrutiny.

Fahd Al-Mahri, Head of Head of TRENDS Dubai Sector, provided insights into TRENDS’ recent launch of a measurement tool centered on the acceptance of the Muslim Brotherhood. This tool, introduced earlier this month, examines how social media influencers worldwide perceive the Brotherhood. It scrutinizes social media discussions throughout 2023 to assess its popularity and public opinion trends. Al-Mahri underscored that the measurement employs an analytical model named “SWOT,” evaluating strengths, weaknesses, threats, and opportunities pertaining to the Brotherhood’s influence.

Al-Mahri stressed that the measurement results comprise a comprehensive report detailing both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the sample used. It identifies threats and opportunities for countering the Group’s ideology. Notably, the analysis revealed that 68.8% of the sample exhibited a negative orientation towards the Brotherhood, with discussions often portraying the Group as distorting Islam and holding extremist views. Many likened the Brotherhood to historical Kharijites, while others criticized its perceived lack of loyalty and allegiance to the nation.