The recent surge in hostilities between Israel and Iran has brought the region into a perilous state of heightened tension,[1] disrupting the strategic focus of multiple nations. The escalation began with Israel’s covert “Rising Lion” operation targeting critical nuclear facilities in Iran, followed by the United States’ “Midnight Hammer” strikes that further devastated Iran’s nuclear infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan sites. These actions inflicted substantial damage on Iran’s nuclear program, delaying its progress considerably, potentially by months, but stopping[2] short of an outright elimination.[3]
In response, Iran retaliated with an unprecedented strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, a strategically vital location that serves as a hub for U.S. military assets and personnel in the Middle East. This attack underscored the fragile nature of the Gulf security architecture and the proximity of Iranian operations to U.S. zones of influence, amplifying concerns about the conflict’s potential to spiral into a broader regional confrontation. The targeted nature of these strikes demonstrated Iran’s continued resilience even amidst significant setbacks, affirming its diminished yet enduring capacity to retaliate against perceived threats.
Fortunately, a ceasefire brokered by the United States on 24 June has temporarily quelled the immediate risk of further escalation. This ceasefire comes as a critical intervention, providing a momentary pause to the increasingly volatile situation. However, the long-term stability of the region remains uncertain, as the Iranian regime, though significantly weakened, has managed to survive the fallout from these operations. “After the bombs should come a plan to reset the region,”[4] meaning that without diplomacy, the next flare-up could be worse. The damage inflicted on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is undeniable, yet the program’s complete eradication remains elusive, leaving a lingering threat that continues to weigh heavily on regional security dynamics. Amidst the fallout, neighboring states and international stakeholders are assessing their positions, strategies, and alliances to survive in the new regional equilibrium.
While Iran reels from the damage inflicted on its political and military institutions, other parties in the region are strategically reassessing. Iran’s strike on Qatar served as a sobering reminder of the persistent vulnerabilities and delicate security balance in the Gulf region and the proximity of U.S. military assets to Iran’s immediate zone of influence. The entire Gulf is now on edge, pointing to how U.S. bases, once seen as insurance policies, have become targets amid Tehran’s retaliatory calculus.[5] Another U.S. ally in the region, Türkiye, whose own military base in Qatar was a mere few miles from the strikes to Al Udeid, has also been on high alert. As tensions between Israel and Iran escalated, Türkiye’s border with Iran came under close scrutiny amid concerns that a potential collapse of the Iranian regime could trigger instability and a surge of refugees.
There are varying degrees of nuance and ambivalence that Türkiye and the Gulf Arab states share in ties to both Iran and Israel. Again, with Türkiye a NATO member state and the Gulf Arab states key U.S. allies in the region, both parties maintain an interest in de-escalation and the containment of further regional conflict. Both Türkiye and the Arab Gulf are also highly impacted by any destabilization caused by Iran or within Iran itself. Türkiye shares a 534-kilometer (323 miles) border with Iran, and historically Iranians have fled to Türkiye in episodes of political violence and instability such as in the aftermath of the Islamic revolution in 1979. Iran and the Gulf Arab states share the Gulf and have deep, complex and often antagonistic relations, which form a significant part of the raison d’etre of foreign policymaking in Abu Dhabi, Doha, Riyadh and other Gulf capitals.
Ties between Ankara and Tehran mix both rivalry, competition and instances of cooperation. Rhetorically, Türkiye has supported Iran in the face of Israeli attacks—yet delivered an unusually muted response to U.S. strikes, hinting at the close personal contact between Turkish President Erdoğan and his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump. Accordingly, President Erdoğan denounced Iran’s targeting of Qatar and pledged support for Qatari sovereignty.[6] Similar trends of simultaneous cooperation and competition are also present in the varying relationships between Iran and the Gulf Arab states. Neither Türkiye nor the Arab Gulf benefits from chaos in Iran, and neither party would advocate for escalation in the current climate. Indeed, ties between Türkiye and Iran, and Iran and the Arab Gulf are assets for the U.S., which remains interested in a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear question and appears largely wary of a regime collapse scenario despite some comments from the Trump administration that suggested otherwise. Statements from Israel and a recent round of comments from Iranian officials appear to confirm that regime change has been averted.
The Conflict Viewed from Türkiye
As the conflict unfolded, Türkiye deployed additional military assets to the border with Iran.[7] The possibility of regime collapse in Iran was entertained as a major risk scenario in Türkiye, causing a flux of migrants and chaos on the Türkiye-Iran border. Türkiye is highly impacted by sharp increases in energy prices, particularly amidst the nation’s austerity program aimed at curtailing inflation. The instability could have caused energy imports to become extremely costly, creating economic hardship on the already strained economy and putting public finances under extended strain.
Iran also houses a wing of the PKK, the terrorist group that recently announced that it would disband following a call from its jailed leader Abdullah Öcalan and fought a forty-year campaign for separation from Türkiye. PJAK, the Iranian branch of the PKK, made calls for insurrection amidst Israeli strikes, raising questions on how encompassing the PKK’s decision to disband was, and whether PJAK would comply or attempt to make use of the imminent chaos in Iran.[8] Again, the risk of terrorist infiltration into Türkiye from the Iranian border emerged as another possible scenario, prompting Ankara to multiply military presence on the border. This was complemented by a visit from Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, and statements from Türkiye’s officials that an open border policy would not be implemented in the case of mass migrant movements. Instability in Iran could have evolved to become a major spoiler to ongoing efforts related to the PKK’s disbandment.
Türkiye therefore remains skeptical of attempts related to regime change in Iran and is wary of upsetting the regional status quo. Ankara walked a fine line between “mediator and militarizer” as the Iran-Israel conflict exposed both regional threats and strategic openings.[9] While Türkiye is a direct beneficiary of Iran’s decline and is actively competing with it for influence in the region, the uncertainties of regime collapse far outweigh the risks of the current political system’s endurance. A weakened Iran with its nuclear wings clipped offers more opportunities for Türkiye, as it also allows Ankara far more leverage in its relationship with Tehran, especially in the Levant and the Caucasus. This is particularly significant for the road ahead, as Türkiye remains a vital link between Iran, the U.S., and the broader Western Alliance. With Iran on the decline, Türkiye can also exert further influence in areas where Iranian influence has traditionally been strong, such as Iraq and Lebanon. In Iraq, this means further cohesion at the political level and a strong impetus for Türkiye’s Development Road project, which could have been blocked by a stronger Iran, yet now will likely face little tangible opposition from Tehran.
While Türkiye is indirectly benefiting from Iran’s preoccupation with a conflict with Israel, the escalation has also created fresh security calculations not only because of PJAK’s possible resurgence[10] but also because of the risk of a wider, more encompassing regional conflict. President Erdoğan vowed to increase Türkiye’s missile stockpile following a cabinet meeting assessing the escalation’s impact on air defenses.[11] Türkiye’s security calculations appear to be signaling the risk of a far more encompassing conflict, in which Türkiye would need to assert deterrence. This is likely to create an urgency to realize domestic defense projects related to aerial defense, such as the “Steel Dome”, KAAN MMU fifth-gen fighter, and ballistic missiles, and could prompt Ankara to make another bid for Patriot Systems along with F-35s from the U.S.—particularly now since Presidents Trump and Erdoğan appear to exhibit a close rapport.
Amidst the ongoing tensions, Türkiye has found itself compelled to reevaluate its military posture and deterrence strategies, especially considering the public discourse surrounding potential escalations with Israel. Although the prospect of direct conflict between Türkiye and Israel remains highly unlikely, the broader implications of Israel’s unilateral actions in the region have spurred Ankara to adopt a cautious yet proactive stance. President Erdoğan’s recent remarks about enhancing Türkiye’s missile stockpiles exemplify this shift, signaling an increased commitment to bolstering national defense capabilities in anticipation of further instability in the Middle East.
This heightened focus on deterrence reflects Türkiye’s nuanced approach to the escalating rivalries in the region. The complex geopolitical landscape requires Ankara to navigate the delicate balance between opposing Israel’s aggressive maneuvers and avoiding outright confrontation. Türkiye’s strategy of decisive neutrality stems from its pragmatic recognition that neither Israel’s dominance over Iran nor vice versa serves its interests. Instead, Türkiye benefits from maintaining the existing regional equilibrium, which allows it to engage in strategic competition without risking widespread chaos.
Moreover, the unfolding conflict has underscored the necessity for Türkiye and Israel to sustain dialogue and cooperation, particularly in areas of mutual concern such as the situation in Syria. While Türkiye has expressed disapproval of Israel’s decision to intensify strikes on Iran, it has refrained from taking measures that could exacerbate tensions further. This careful calibration of its foreign policy demonstrates Ankara’s preference for preserving the status quo rather than supporting actions that could lead to an imbalance of power in the region.
In essence, Türkiye’s response to the ongoing escalation illustrates its commitment to stability and its broader regional role as a mediator and balancing power,[12] much like the Gulf Arab states. By pursuing a policy that prioritizes neutrality and strategic restraint, Türkiye positions itself as a key player in efforts to de-escalate hostilities and maintain peace in a region fraught with uncertainty. The careful reassessment of its defense strategies and diplomatic ties highlights Türkiye’s capacity to adapt to shifting dynamics while safeguarding its national interests and preserving regional stability.
Securing the Gulf
Türkiye’s position on the conflict is largely reflected in the Gulf states, which share similar concerns and strategic interests regarding the ongoing escalation between Israel and Iran. While Iran remains a major rival and competitor for all Arab Gulf states, the geographical proximity of Iran and shared boundaries in the Gulf make the risks of further escalation particularly acute for this region. Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Al Udeid Air Base has underscored the precariousness of security in the Gulf, heightening the stakes for all parties involved. Adding to this complexity are the widespread U.S. military deployments across the Gulf, which include active installations in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. These U.S. assets not only serve as deterrence but also become potential targets for Iranian aggression, amplifying the risks of a broader regional conflict.
The Gulf states, despite their varying levels of diplomatic engagement, share strong defense ties with the United States, positioning them as central players in the balance of power in the region. Iran’s willingness to strike U.S. military assets within the Gulf underscores the delicate balancing act these nations face, as they simultaneously function as strategic allies to Washington and as mediators hosting ongoing dialogues between Iran and the United States. These nuanced ties necessitate careful navigation, as outright antagonism or isolation of Iran could destabilize the already volatile dynamics of the Gulf.
Beyond military concerns, the Gulf states’ interest in maintaining a stable yet strategically constrained Iran aligns closely with Türkiye’s strategic outlook. Both parties stand to benefit from a scenario where Iran is contained but not destabilized to the point of chaos or collapse. Such a collapse could lead to an unpredictable reshaping of power in the region, with ramifications that may extend far beyond the Gulf. The current regime in Iran, while deeply challenging for Arab Gulf states due to its ideological and geopolitical stances, remains an integral part of the Gulf’s power matrix. The prospect of chaos in Iran—a scenario without clear indications of how the country’s future political leadership would be shaped—is therefore undesirable for both Türkiye and the Gulf.
Recent actions by Gulf states further illustrate their shared interest in de-escalation and stability. Even Iran’s attack on Qatar was met with caution rather than aggressive retaliation,[13] with reports suggesting that Iran had coordinated with Qatari officials beforehand to minimize casualties during the strike. This measured approach highlights the broader strategy of containment and careful management of tensions rather than outright escalation. Despite the unprecedented nature of the recent hostilities, the conflict has so far been kept within manageable bounds.
For Türkiye and the Gulf, the delicate balance of power in the region remains essential not only for their own security but also for their ability to mediate in broader geopolitical conflicts. Both parties are uniquely positioned to act as intermediaries between Iran and the United States and potentially between Iran and Israel, leveraging their strategic ties and nuanced relationships. The importance of regional powers stepping up in the absence of consistent U.S. engagement cannot be overstated. This role as mediators is particularly significant as the United States continues to seek pathways for addressing Iran’s nuclear ambitions while avoiding a regime collapse scenario. While the Trump administration occasionally hinted at support for regime change in Iran, the prevailing U.S. strategy appears to favor a diplomatic solution, a position that aligns with the stabilizing efforts of both Türkiye and the Gulf states.
The Arab Gulf states’ approach to Iran reflects a pragmatic recognition of the importance of maintaining the status quo. Despite their deep-seated rivalries with Tehran, there is little appetite for outright escalation that could lead to unpredictable consequences. For these states, Iran remains a challenging but indispensable neighbor, whose stability—even if weakened—provides a critical counterweight to the risks of unchecked regional upheaval and hegemonic conflict. This nuanced strategy underscores the Gulf’s broader commitment to de-escalation and stability in the face of an ever-shifting geopolitical landscape.
The current escalation between Israel and Iran highlights the intricate interplay of the balancing act that third countries must pursue. Türkiye and the Arab Gulf states, as major stakeholders in these dynamics, continue to navigate the complexities of such relationships, striving to balance strategic interests with the imperative of regional stability. Their shared pursuit of de-escalation and careful diplomacy serves as a critical counterweight to the risks of broader conflict and has indeed succeeded in preventing a spiral of violence.
Türkiye, GCC and the Status Quo
Increasingly, the United States is relying on Türkiye and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) as stabilizing forces in a region marked by intricate geopolitical tensions. The ongoing escalation between Israel and Iran has pushed the Middle East closer to widespread instability. While Israel remains one of America’s closest allies, its unilateral actions, often favoring military escalation, occasionally diverge from U.S. priorities to reduce regional tensions. This divergence underscores the emerging role of Türkiye and the GCC as status quo powers, whose strategies align more closely with Washington’s broader goals of stability and containment.
Türkiye and the GCC nations have demonstrated their capacity to act as mediators and pragmatic players in a volatile landscape. Notably, President Trump’s decision to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE in May as his first foreign trip and regional diplomatic engagements highlighted the significance of these states in aligning U.S. policy goals with regional realities. This outreach solidified the Gulf’s position as indispensable partners for economic stability, technological development, and addressing multifaceted challenges ranging from Iranian aggression to the Syrian crisis and the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
Conclusion
The current conflict between Israel and Iran, while intense, remains contained within certain bounds, and this containment can be furthered with joint Turkish and Gulf efforts. Looking ahead, Türkiye and Gulf capitals are poised to lead efforts aimed at achieving a diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. This goal aligns with the broader interests of all involved parties, including the United States and Europe, as well as regional stakeholders who prioritize containment over outright chaos. The prospect of addressing Iran’s nuclear aspirations through negotiation rather than confrontation serves as a unifying agenda, particularly given the undesirable consequences of a regime collapse in Tehran. Such an outcome would likely result in unpredictable shifts in regional power dynamics, a scenario neither Türkiye nor the Gulf states wish to see unfold.
The Trump administration’s approach to engaging the region further illustrates the centrality of Türkiye and Gulf states in stabilizing conflict hotspots. From Iran to Syria and Gaza, these actors have emerged as key partners in implementing strategies that counteract volatility while preserving the delicate balance of power. As the war between Israel and Iran continues to unfold amid a recent pause, the role of Türkiye and the GCC is expected to grow even more prominent. Their unique ability to mediate, coupled with their strategic ties to the United States, positions them as invaluable players in the pursuit of sustained peace and stability in the Middle East.
Through their shared commitment to pragmatic diplomacy, Türkiye and the Gulf states exemplify the delicate interplay of competition, cooperation, and containment that defines their approach to regional relations. This was on complete display as Israel and Iran attacked one another, dragging the region into a spiral of dangerous conflict that could escalate into a nuclear exchange and very well result in the total collapse of security and stability, not just regionally but globally. As the region reels from the wounds of the conflict, and looks to address the outstanding conflict in Gaza, the role of Türkiye and the GCC is once again at the forefront.
The transformation of the Türkiye-GCC axis into a force for stability is the hallmark of both rationally grounded foreign policy and the shifts in the region caused by the events following 7th October. Amidst the regional chaos, Türkiye and the GCC have emerged as balancing forces. Neither party is served by either Israel or Iran’s escalation, nor do they wish to see the regional status quo collapse, showcasing their unique positions on the conflict.
[1] Najla Al Midfa and Shamsa Al Qubaisi, “Oil, Missiles and Power: The Geopolitics of the Iran-Israel Conflict,” TRENDS Research and Advisory, June 26, 2025, https://trendsresearch.org/insight/oil-missiles-and-power-the-geopolitics-of-the-iran-israel-conflict/.
[2] Richard Nephew, “Did the Attacks on Iran Succeed?,” Foreign Affairs, June 26, 2025, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/did-attacks-iran-succeed.
[3] “We wanted to eliminate Khamenei’: Israel’s Defence Minister Katz,” Al Jazeera, June 26, 2025, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/26/we-wanted-to-eliminate-khamenei-israels-defence-minister.
[4] “How to Win Peace in the Middle East, How to Win Peace in the Middle East,” The Economist, June 26, 2025, https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/06/26/how-to-win-peace-in-the-middle-east.
[5] “How to Win Peace in the Middle East, How to Win Peace in the Middle East.”
[6] “Türkiye condemns all forms of attacks violating Qatar’s sovereignty: Erdogan to Al Thani, TRT Global, June 27, 2025, https://trt.global/afrika-english/article/80e57bf0e1c1.
[7] Serdar Dincel, “Turkish defense chief inspects military units on border with Iran, Anadolu Agency, June 18, 2025, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/turkish-defense-chief-inspects-military-units-on-border-with-iran/3603073.
[8] Winthrop Rodgers, “Kurdish militancy in Iran uncertain as armed struggle recedes in Turkey,” Anwaj Media, May 21, 2025, https://amwaj.media/en/article/kurdish-militancy-in-iran-uncertain-as-armed-struggle-recedes-in-turkey.
[9] Barın Kayaoğlu, “How Turkey’s Erdogan Navigated Trump Ties and Instability Risks from Israel-Iran War – AL-Monitor: The Middle Eastʼs Leading Independent News Source since 2012,” Al Monitor, June 24, 2025, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/06/how-turkeys-erdogan-navigated-trump-ties-and-instability-risks-israel-iran-war.
[10] Murat Yeşiltaş, “Security at stake: Türkiye responds to Iran-Israel conflict, Daily Sabah, June 22, 2025, https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/security-at-stake-turkiye-responds-to-iran-israel-conflict.
[11] “Türkiye unveils plans to boost deterrence amid regional tensions,” Daily Sabah, June 22, 2025, https://www.dailysabah.com/business/defense/turkiye-unveils-plans-to-boost-deterrence-amid-regional-tensions.
[12] Hazel Ward, “Turkey breathes easier as Iran-Israel truce eases fallout risk, Al Monitor, June 25, 2025, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/06/turkey-breathes-easier-iran-israel-truce-eases-fallout-risk.
[13] Sean Seddon & Gabriela Pomeroy, “What we know about Iran’s attack on US base in Qatar,” BBC, June 24, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjxdgjpd48o.
