A new study by TRENDS Research and Advisory has highlighted that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, marks a pivotal moment that could reshape the political landscape in Syria after more than 13 years of conflict.

The study, titled “Post-Assad: Scenarios for the Evolution of the Syrian Landscape”, was conducted by TRENDS’ Strategic Studies Department and delves into the developments between November 27 and December 8. It notes that the regime’s collapse was the result of a confluence of internal and external factors, including a major military offensive by armed opposition factions, their swift control of Aleppo, Homs, and eventually Damascus, as well as defections within the Syrian army and the waning support from Russia and Iran.

The study emphasizes that the Syrian army’s disintegration was rooted in longstanding structural weaknesses, exacerbated by military and economic attrition and increasing defections, particularly among field commanders. It also points to the erosion of the regime’s domestic legitimacy due to repression and economic collapse, coupled with its overreliance on foreign allies, which accelerated its downfall.

Looking ahead, the study underscores the significant challenges Syria faces, including rebuilding state institutions, achieving national reconciliation, and addressing the demands of various factions and social groups. It warns of the impact of external interventions, particularly by Türkiye and Russia, on the political process and calls for renewed efforts towards a political settlement under international auspices.

The study outlines four potential scenarios for Syria’s future after Assad’s fall: the Libyan scenario, involving internal conflict among armed and civilian opposition factions, with the risk of descending into a new civil war; the partition scenario, where chaos leads to the division of Syria into areas of influence, with the emergence of independent entities or mini-states along ethnic and sectarian lines; the South African scenario, which envisions a comprehensive settlement through national reconciliation, supported by regional and international stakeholders, enabling a peaceful transition of power and state rebuilding; and a fourth scenario, considered the most likely by the study, namely the Consensus Government scenario, involving the formation of a slow-paced coalition government based on internal and external balances, with Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) playing a significant role in the transitional phase.

The study concludes that Syria’s future heavily depends on the ability of Syrian, regional, and international actors to manage the transitional phase wisely, focusing on avoiding a security and political vacuum and working toward building an inclusive civil state that fulfils the aspirations of all components of the Syrian people.