A recent study published by TRENDS Research & Advisory reveals that geopolitical shifts in the age of artificial intelligence (AI) are no longer limited to technological or software superiority. Instead, they have expanded to include control over physical infrastructures such as semiconductors, data centers, rare earth minerals, and undersea fiber-optic cables—all of which have become critical tools in reshaping the global balance of power.
The study — Features of Geopolitical Shifts in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Code to Control — warns that the interdependence among states in technological supply chains creates strategic chokepoints that major powers can exploit as instruments of political and economic pressure.
The study highlights that China dominates between 70 percent and 90 percent of global rare earth refining, while the manufacturing of advanced semiconductor chips is concentrated in Taiwan and South Korea. This puts global supply chains at risk of geopolitical disruptions.
Prepared by the TRENDS Virtual Office in Germany, the study points out that data centers, which consume massive amounts of energy, may account for up to 9.1
2 / 2
percent of U.S. national electricity consumption by 2030, increasing pressure on energy resources and raising sustainability concerns. It also underscores the fragility of undersea fiber-optic cables, which carry 95 percent of the world’s data, noting that recent reports have revealed deliberate threats to sever these cables, such as in the 2024 Red Sea incident.
The study foresees the emergence of a “dual digital world order” with a Western bloc led by the United States and the European Union and an Eastern bloc led by China and Russia. It also points to the growing role of middle powers, such as the UAE and India, in reshaping the global digital map.
The study asserts that dominance in AI is no longer measured solely by algorithmic capabilities but increasingly by control over critical resources such as energy, water, and minerals. This could lead to a new form of “digital stratification,” exacerbating inequalities between nations. It calls for establishing a global charter to govern the fair distribution of AI-related resources. It stresses that the future will belong to those who control the infrastructure, not just the software.
