Trends Research and Advisory released the Arabic translation of the book “The Twenty Years War… Jihadism and Counterterrorism in the Twenty-first Century”. The Book documents in five chapters the global war against terrorism and extremism, which ran from 2001 to 2021. The book reviews the evolution of strategies to confront and counter terrorism through three phases (the classic war, the war against insurgency, and the weak footprint).

The book has been released as part of the program of scientific and knowledge events in preparation for the Center’s participation in the Paris International Book Fair 2024. The book was initially launched at TRENDS – Dubai office, through a panel discussion on its content. The panel was moderated by Rahaf Al Khazraji, researcher and director of the scientific publishing department at Trends, with the participation of the book’s authors, Dr. Marc Hecker, Deputy Director of the French Institute of International Relations, and Elie Tanenbaum, Director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations.

5 Main Chapters

Rahaf Al-Khazraji said that the book, which TRENDS has translated from French into Arabic, discusses the consequences of the war that began with the World Trade Center attacks on September 11, 2001 and ended with the peace agreement concluded in Doha between the United States of America and the Taliban on February 29, 2020. The book reviews several waves of terrorism through five main chapters:  “The shock wave of super-terrorism (2001-2006), the era of fighting the insurgency (2006-2011), jihad revolutionizes (2011-2014), the return of the caliph (2014-2017), and the strange victory (2018-2021).

Disrupting Jihadist Organizations

Dr. Marc Hecker, Deputy Director of the French Institute of International Relations, stressed that the first phase of the war on terrorism, ran from 2001 to 2006. During this phase, the Western armed forces succeeded in destroying safe havens for terrorists and disrupting international jihadist organizations, through an effective combination of intelligence exchange and joint confrontation strategies. He added that in the wake of the era of regime change, the desire to build liberal democracies from scratch proved to be naïve, and described as interference in the internal affairs of some countries.

Between 2006 and 2011, the United States and its allies adapted their strategy and switched to a counterinsurgency mode by deploying sufficient forces on the ground and adopting new tactics and response techniques. Dr. Hecker said that during this phase, The US understood that it had to completely change its mentality on war, as the new center of gravity of the conflict focused on the local population. The US and its allies needed to provide security so that civilians could support the legitimate government. This strategy worked, but it required a huge money investment.

Strategic competition

The author, Marc Hecker, noted that since 2011, America’s interest has been centered on Asia — a term that Hillary Clinton first used believing that America’s new priority is to shift its focus from the Middle East toward strategic competition with China in Asia.

Dr. Mark Hicker pointed out that the American shift towards Asia was initially delayed as a result of the turmoil in some Arab countries in 2011. He said that America did not expect the strategic surprises created by the events that took place in Arab countries, nor did it expect the return of jihadists to the forefront of the scene, to take advantage of the instability fostered by the unrest, especially in Libya and Syria.

Weakening Extremist Identity

Elie Tanenbaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at the French Institute of International Relations, explained that the struggle against violent extremism was a primary goal of US national security after the events of September 11. However, 20 years later, this strategic cycle is now coming to an end due to several strategic successes. The core of extremist jihadist groups has been severely weakened, reducing their ability to project global violence.

But for the West, there is an important lesson from the past 20 years. It is clear that governments underestimated the importance of al-Qaeda before September 11, and the same can be said of ISIS before 2014, while these terrorist organizations still have the desire to attack.

The authors stressed that governments must limit negotiations with terrorists, and be more aware if they are forced to negotiate without being proper knowledge of the serious intentions of these groups. He explained that governments must also reassess the significance of the war against terrorism, and divide it into other priorities, especially the idea of competition between great powers.

Control strategies

Dr. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Ali, CEO of Trends Research and Advisory, thanked the participants for their valuable information on jihadist organizations and terrorist groups, and their insightful review of the global strategies to combat extremism in the twenty-first century.

Dr. Al-Ali added that this discussion about the new book “Twenty Years War … Jihadism and Counter-Terrorism in the Twenty-first Century”, provided an in-depth, accurate and objective understanding of jihadist movements and similar organizations around the world. He indicated that the book invokes the strict documentation rules used and required in this type of targeted studies. The book has another major advantage, as it does not only present the facts about terrorism, but also presents the development of the strategies aimed at confronting it at all levels.