TRENDS Research & Advisory has released a comprehensive foresight report — Prospects for Political, Strategic, and Economic Developments in 2026 — offering an in-depth analysis of the rapid transformations shaping the world amid intensifying geopolitical competition, mounting economic disruptions, and profound changes like security and warfare.
The report underscores that 2026 is likely to mark what can be described as a “year of delayed political impact,” in which the cumulative outcomes of policies pursued over recent years begin to surface more clearly, both at the level of the international system and within national economies, against a backdrop of heightened uncertainty, declining stability, and the erosion of traditional alliances.
Deep Political and Geostrategic Transformations
The report explains that competition among major powers, particularly between the United States and China, will remain the primary driver of global instability, alongside the continued repercussions of the Russia–Ukraine war and the potential for escalation in the Middle East and other regions. It also notes that AI is no longer merely an economic tool, but has evolved into a geopolitical arena through which states seek to enhance their strategic influence.
The report highlights the growing role of Gulf states, most notably the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, as influential actors in technology, energy, and the digital economy, strengthening their positions in shaping global economic and geopolitical balances.
It further examines how domestic political variables in major powers, including the United States, Europe, China, and Russia, are shaping the stability of the international system, emphasizing that internal divisions and economic pressures are likely to be reflected in these countries’ foreign policies and their capacity to manage global crises.
Global Economy: Modest Growth and Rising Risks
Economically, the report projects global growth of approximately 3.1% in 2026, with clear divergence between advanced economies and emerging markets. It notes that while the worldwide economy demonstrated some resilience in 2025, this resilience remains fragile amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, the expansion of protectionist policies, and persistent disruptions to global supply chains.
The report highlights volatility in energy markets, anticipating continued pressure on oil prices alongside a relative increase in natural gas prices. It also underscores that the transition toward clean energy will continue to accelerate, with the growing role of solar and wind power in meeting global electricity demand, even as challenges related to securing critical minerals intensify.
Regarding technology, the report notes that the surge in investment in AI and data centers is a key driver of growth. At the same time, it carries potential risks, including the formation of an investment bubble that could affect global financial stability.
Shift in the Concept of Military Power
On the military front, the report explains that the world is witnessing an unprecedented rise in defense spending, accompanied by an increasing focus on AI, unmanned systems, and cyber warfare. It anticipates the continued deepening of traditional military alliances, alongside the emergence of new technological partnerships linking defense industries with research.
The report further emphasizes that future conflicts are likely to move increasingly toward hybrid warfare, combining conventional military operations with cyberattacks and information warfare. This trend will require states to develop multi-layered security strategies and strengthen crisis-management mechanisms to prevent unintended escalation.
Decline of Political Islam and Persistence of Terrorist Threats
In the ideological sphere, the report documents the continued deterioration of political Islam, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood, as a result of deepening internal crises, organizational fragmentation, and mounting legal and political pressures in several countries.
The report also warns of the sustained activity of terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda, especially in the African Sahel, East Africa, and Afghanistan. It notes the evolution of their operational tools, the growing use of UAVs, and the expansion of cross-border activities.
Conclusion
The TRENDS report concludes that 2026 will represent a turbulent transitional phase in the international system, characterized neither by unipolar stability nor by balanced multipolarity, but by a global environment marked by escalating political, economic, and security risks. It stresses that addressing these challenges will require stronger international cooperation, sustained investment in knowledge and technology, and the development of proactive policies capable of managing crises, rather than relying solely on reactive responses.
The report emphasizes that states and institutions equipped with foresight and rapid adaptation will be best positioned to safeguard their interests, enhance their security, and achieve sustainable development in a rapidly changing world.
