A research study published by TRENDS Research & Advisory emphasizes that while desalination is a vital tool in addressing the escalating global water scarcity crisis, it also poses significant environmental and economic challenges that must be addressed to ensure the long-term sustainability of this technology.
According to the study — The Future of Desalination: Between Financing and Climate Challenges — prepared by the Economic Studies Section at TRENDS, the world faces a projected 40% water shortfall by 2030. Although 70% of the Earth’s surface is covered by water, only 0.5% is available and drinkable. The desalination industry is rapidly expanding, with over 21,000 active desalination plants worldwide by 2022, growing between 6% and 12% annually.
However, the study warns that 99% of desalination plants rely on fossil fuels, making them a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions, estimated at 76 million tons of CO₂ in 2014, potentially rising to 400 million tons by 2050.
The study highlights several critical challenges, such as the high economic cost—desalinated water is 1.5 to 4 times more expensive than conventional sources. The price per cubic meter of seawater desalinated ranges between $0.50 and $2.50, limiting its feasibility in many developing countries. Other challenges include high energy consumption, the environmental impact of brine discharge, and disruption of marine ecosystems.
To address these issues, the study calls for a transition to “green desalination,” which combines technological innovation with renewable energy sources, particularly solar power, to reduce costs and emissions. Proposed solutions include designing eco-friendly intake and outfall systems to minimize marine damage; enhancing plant efficiency with advanced, energy-saving pumps and technologies; implementing innovative brine management through evaporation and resource recovery techniques; and integrating renewable energy into plant operations to reduce fossil fuel dependence.
The study also stresses the importance of developing sustainable financing mechanisms to support the spread of desalination, such as public funding combined with community participation to raise awareness and public engagement; green bonds to attract private investment in desalination projects; and promoting public-private partnerships (PPPs) to share risks, expertise, and capital.
The study underlines that while desalination holds immense promise as a solution to the global water crisis, its success will depend on overcoming environmental and economic barriers through innovation, renewable energy adoption, and effective financing models.
The study concludes that desalination offers great potential, but its sustainable success hinges on reducing costs and environmental impact through green technologies and smart partnerships.
