Attention is turning toward the indirect negotiations to be held in Egypt between Israel and Hamas, amid numerous warnings about the risk of their failure, given the complexities in certain details of the Trump plan, not to mention the longstanding lack of trust between the two sides, which has previously undermined many efforts.

In light of these negotiations, several challenges must be considered to understand the potential outcomes of the process. These can be summarized as follows:

• Divergent U.S. positions: Statements have oscillated between optimism and pessimism regarding the possibility of a ceasefire, alongside implicit American threats to both parties.
• The issue of Israeli hostages, particularly the “bodies,” could complicate the negotiation process, especially if Hamas’s claims about the difficulty of locating them in a short time are accurate.
• The likelihood of early Israeli elections in the event of the government’s collapse, which means, if effective solutions are not achieved on the ground with irreversible commitments, the scenario of the Trump plan’s failure becomes highly likely.

Thus, two main questions arise: What if the plan succeeds? And conversely, what if it fails?

If the plan succeeds:

• It would stop bloodshed on both sides and end Gaza’s ongoing humanitarian crisis.
• It could create a new political reality in Gaza, especially with international presence, as outlined in the Trump plan, potentially redefining the U.S. approach to the Palestinian issue.
• Political shifts could occur within the Palestinian arena, with the possibility of new political forces emerging with different visions.
• Stability in Gaza could reduce Israeli confrontations across various regional fronts, which may strengthen new economic projects, and that were previously planned.

If the plan fails:

• Gaza could face a new round of Israeli military operations, potentially the most intense yet.
• The humanitarian situation would deteriorate significantly, with the image of the U.S. president in the region at stake, especially if the failure is due to Israel.
• The strength of the Israeli far-right could increase, particularly if Hamas is blamed for the failure, likely impacting election results in favor of extremist figures such as Ben Gvir and Smotrich.
• The Middle East would remain in a state of heightened alert and persistent apprehension over Netanyahu’s unpredictable actions in the region.