The Muslim Brotherhood’s International Power Index – MBIPI 2022-2023

The 2021 Muslim Brotherhood’s International Power Index (MBIPI) clearly indicates how the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), suffered significant setbacks, leading to a loss of popular support and influence in Arab societies. This significantly affected MB’s global power index, sinking to 64% compared to their highest level during the Arab Spring. However, MB remain Strong, but on the lower end of this tier which ranges from 61% to 80%. Therefore, the Muslim Brotherhood are closer to being Moderately Strong than Very Strong. So, what happened between January and December 2022?

The Muslim Brotherhood continue to take on hard blows, which significantly weaken their power, namely:

• The influence of MB’s media machine and their power of mobilization have become weaker, due to a lack of professionalism and credibility and a tendency towards exaggeration. This is exacerbated with failed comeback attempts in the media scene through new satellite channels, such as “Al- Shoub” [The Peoples].
• Internal disputes and divisions persist (splits in Ennahda),1 as well as increased conflicts between the London and Istanbul fronts and the Kamalist wing, especially after the death of Ibrahim Mounir3 in November 2022 and the fight over the position of Acting Supreme Guide.
• The declared rapprochement between the Arab Quartet countries,4 and Qatar and Turkey. This rapprochement has been so far at the expense of MB’sinterests.
• Increased blockade and restrictive actions have undermined MB at the international level, including the decision on 18 September 2022 by the Central Council of Muslims in Germany (ZMD) to expel all MB representatives. This ban encompasses the Islamic Center in Munich and the MB-affiliated Student Union. ZMD also stripped renowned global MB figure Ibrahim El- Zayat, known as MB finance minister, of his position within the Council. In the same year, Austria invested more on countering and deconstructing the narrative of political Islam, through its Documentation Centre Political Islam(DPI).
• More MB members undergoing security-based prosecutions. For example, in mid-January 2022, the Egyptian authorities arrested Hossam Menoufy, a prominent leader and a founder of Hasm, MB’s armed wing. The Egyptian Official Gazette has also published on 16 October 2022, the decision of the Cairo Criminal Court, Circuit 31 South regarding terrorist entities, branding the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization and banning them for five years.
• Several TV shows were broadcast in Ramadan 2022, revealing many unknown aspects to the public. These TV productions also helped decimate any remaining sympathy for the Muslim Brotherhood. At the forefront of these shows is The Choice [Al-Ikhtiyâr] series, which documented in audio and video how MB resorted to violence and terrorism and how, in that context, their members opted for escalation. The series has also emphasized the fact that MB’s loyalty was never to Egypt. In this sense, it chronicles how MB never sought to improve the situation in Egypt, but rather to enable their cadres to control key positions within the Egyptian state and impose their ideology on society to perpetuate their rule.
• Divisions and fragmentations have affected major MB organizations worldwide. For instance, the Algerian Muslim Scholars Association announced that it would freeze its activities related to the International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS), following the statement, in August 2022, of Ahmed Raissouni, IUMS chairman and Head of the Moroccan Movement of Unity and Reform, against Algeria, in which he declared that “Moroccans, and scholars and preachers in Morocco are ready for jihad, with money and lives [...] and to crawl in millions towards the Algerian city of Tindouf”. This statement ultimately led to Raissouni’s resignation from his position later in August 2022. Large segments of Arab and Muslim populations have become convinced, more than ever, of MB’s deceitful narrative and their selective manipulation of regional issues, especially after the full normalization of relations between Turkey and Israel, in August 2022.
• These blows culminated in solid indicators confirming that MB are now, to a large extent, out of international equations. They no longer exert the same influence on the street and are not being seen any more as a useful geostrategic tool in interstate conflicts. US President Joe Biden and Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Egypt, and their meeting with Presidents El-Sisi and Erdogan in November 2022, are a few examples.